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Game Preview: How the Patriots Can Secure a Statement Win vs Bills

The Patriots beat up on a bad team last week, but this weekend's prime-time matchup vs the Bills is a prime opportunity for a statement win.
Taylor KylesBy Updated:7 Mins Read

The Patriots beat up on a bad Panthers team for their first home win. This Sunday, Mike Vrabel’s team has a chance to make a statement against a quality opponent in a most hostile environment.

“If you want to get to where you want to get to, I think you certainly better enjoy playing in prime-time games. And that’s something that we’re trying to prepare for right now,” Vrabel said. “I think that certainly it will be a huge challenge. The last time they lost at home was 14 games ago. We’re well aware of that and have to do a lot of really good things to give ourselves a chance. They’re, playing good football, they’re playing clean football, they’re not beating themselves and they’re doing a nice job in all phases.”

New England is coming off its most dominant and complementary game in years. The offense looked explosive in a turnover-free performance, the defense allowed two scores, and Marcus Jones earned AFC Special Teams Player of the Week in an outstanding day for special teams. That deserves recognition regardless of opponent, but the truth is, it won’t mean much if the Patriots don’t build on it against an AFC powerhouse.

The Bills haven’t faced a contender since their opener against the Ravens, but 4-0 is 4-0. Reigning MVP Josh Allen is obviously the straw that stirs the drink, but Buffalo also boasts a top-tier run game and a mauling offensive line. On the other side, Sean McDermott’s defense remains one of the league’s most well-coached units, and they’ve done an excellent job limiting big plays.

“It’s a great gauge for us,” Drake Maye told reporters. “See how much – like I said, see what we’ve got. We’re competing on the road in a tough environment, and it’s one of the first times we’ll do that as a team. Battling through, playing four quarters of football, that’s going to matter. Playing on the road, four quarters matters. ”

Patriots-Bills has been competitive in recent years, but Buffalo has come out on top in five of Allen’s last six starts. If New England wants to claw its way back from the depths of mediocrity, upsetting an 8.5-point favorite while improving to 2-0 in the division is a damn good start.

Here are my three keys to the Patriots pulling off an upset against the Bills.

Establish the Run

The Patriots’ run game has lots of room to grow, which is understandably for a group with one returning starter on the offensive line. Still, the ground game has taken small steps toward growth in recent games.

Backs protected the rock last Sunday after a fumble-filled Week 3, and New England produced its third 100-yard rushing game (though Maye scrambles skew the stats a bit). Misdirection was key to last week’s success, with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels using motion and two-back sets to confuse Carolina‘a defense.

A respectable rushing attack and with a favorable score kept the Patriots’ playbook open, allowing Maye to thrive off of play action. Fortunately for New England, this is a good week to pound the rock.

The Bills’ defensive front prioritizes penetration and quick-fills, which make them vulnerable to downhill runs and misdirection. Those are weaknesses McDaniels has historically exploited, and Buffalo potentially being without two of their top defenders in DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano will put an even bigger targte on the defense’s back. The Bills have also struggled against quarterback runs, a weakness New England could exploit with its dual-threat passer.

If the Patriots can run effectively, drain the clock, and keep Buffalo’s defense on its toes, it will go a long way in slowing down one of the league’s most dangerous offenses.

Contain Josh Allen

The Patriots’ defense faced a mobile quarterback for the first time last week in Bryce Young. Young managed to slip out of a potential sack early on, and he got outside Harold Landry on a pair of bootlegs, but New England’s front largely kept Carolina’s quarterback in the pocket. It was a solid first step ahead of what will be a Herculean challenge this weekend in Buffalo.

Allen leads the NFL with 143 rushing yards on scrambles, and he’s tied with Maye for the most scramble scores. Allen hasn’t been as efficient as usual when throwing in these situations, but he’s still capable of flipping field position and throwing back-breaking touchdowns outside the pocket.

When asked about maintaining balance when rushing the 2x All-Pro, Vrabel highlighted coordination and relentlessness up front.

“Even when guys are free, he makes a miss,” Vrabel said. “He spins or he’ll extend out past the numbers to the red line and continue to make plays down the field. Or, heaven forbid, he scrambles up the middle and makes a move on a guy like he’s done in the past in the last couple weeks or breaks the stiff arm out. So, again, it’s a huge challenge any time that he’s carrying the football. And then, obviously, the accuracy and kind of the timing that he’s had throwing the football will be something that we’ll have to work on.”

Christian Barmore, Harold Landry, and K’Lavon Chaisson are a formidable and experienced group that should give the Bills trouble. However, Milton Williams‘ status is uncertain after the star defender landed up on the injury report with an ankle, which would leave Khyiris Tonga and Keion White as the next men up. Tonga has excelled in a rotational role, and White finally got snaps at interior rusher last week, but group chemistry and lane integrity will be critical factors this week.

A disciplined rush should mitigate Allen’s scrambling, but keeping him hemmed in for four quarters just isn’t realistic. When he does break contain, coverage defenders need to plaster their assignments downfield, and whoever has eyes on Allen must take smart angles to shrink potential run lanes. That said, keeping Allen in the pocket isn’t the only time New England’s front will be on high alert this Sunday.

Don’t Let James Cook Run Wild

James Cook has lived up to his new deal through four weeks, leading the NFL with five rushing touchdowns while ranking 2nd in yards (401) explosive runs (10, tied with Ashton Jeanty). The home run threat hasn’t done it alone, as he’s averaging the 5th-most yards before contact among players with at least 30 carries. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes are also two of the highest-graded run blockers at their position.

“They’ve got good guys blocking for him,” Vrabel said. “I think the tight ends have done a really nice job. And then I think his vision, his patience and burst. Everybody’s at the point of attack. He runs where you’re not and if you have bad discipline or you don’t chase your gap when it’s moving away from you, he’s going to come back and find it. So, he’s really been a nice back for them and is just taking care of the football with the amount of carries that he’s had.”

The Patriots’ run defense has been one of the team’s greatest strengths this season. The defensive line’s attacking style has produced several tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. Robert Spillane’s been more consistent as a tackler, and Jack Gibbens has been solid as an early-down sidecar with Christian Elliss struggling.

As stout as the run defense has been, they allowed a season-high four explosive runs last week. That may sound nit-picky, but it was the third week in a New England gave up a big carry outside the tackles.

Kyle Dugger has been caught inside on bounced carries two weeks straight, and Christian Gonzalez got picked on at times on perimeter runs. Linebackers could also be quicker to recognize and fill gaps, but the defense might be getting reinforcements at the position.

Jahlani Tavai returned to practice this week after missing four games with a calf injury. He’s coming off a down 2024 season, but could return to form with better coaching and players around him after shaking off the rust.

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Taylor Kyles is the lead NFL Analyst for CLNS Media covering players, schemes, and tendencies through a New England Patriots-centric lens.

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